ONGC Q4 results preview: Profit may plunge up to 60%, margin contraction likely

The scrip rose 1.33 per cent to hit a high of Rs 83.50 on BSE.

expects ONGC’s gas production to decline 7.5 per cent YoY, with realisation falling 2.1 per cent to Rs 9.8 per standard cubic meter. Domestic oil production is seen falling 10.8 per cent YoY to 5.2 million metric tonnes. This brokerage sees net sales for ONGC declining 23.5 per cent to Rs 20,467 crore but expects a massive 51 per cent YoY fall in adjusted profit to Rs 2,026 crore.

BoB Capital Markets expects standalone profit for ONGC to drop 58.6 per cent to Rs 1,673 crore on a 26 per cent fall in sales at Rs 19,803 crore. Ebitda margin is seen contracting to 43.1 per cent from 46.2 per cent YoY.

“We estimate ONGC’s Q4 EPS to be down 20 per cent YoY hit by 24 per cent YoY lower oil price realisation at $50 per barrel and 9-10 per cent YoY fall in gas and oil sales volumes,” ICICI Securities said.

Nomura India, which sees revenue for ONGC falling 25 per cent at Rs 20,120 crore, said: “We expect ONGC’s oil production to decline 6 per cent YoY. Gas production declines will be likely higher at 13 per cent YoY, driven by the impact of production cuts due to the lockdown that began in end-March. The full impact of lower production will be felt in June quarter,” it said.

Analysts, however, do not expect oil production to be impacted much in FY21.